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Three weeks into the ongoing military operation by the United States and Israel against Iran, their ultimate objective remains unclear. Analysis of various attack patterns suggests that the campaign is being conducted with multiple objectives in mind, but no single “endgame” is apparent.
According to analysts, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has outlined various objectives, including destroying Iran’s military capabilities, weakening its leadership, creating internal instability, and halting its nuclear program.
Three-Phase War Strategy
According to experts, the war has so far been conducted in three phases—
Phase One:
The initial “shock and awe” strategy targeted Iran’s political and military leadership. This included the reported death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The objective was to cripple the decision-making process.
Phase Two:
Attacks targeted IRGC bases and affiliated forces, police, and paramilitary groups to weaken Iran’s internal security structure. The goal was to create internal instability.
Phase Three:
Recently, attempts have been observed to disrupt the daily lives of ordinary citizens through attacks on energy infrastructure, particularly the South Pars gas field.
Significant Blow to Military Capabilities
According to reports, the United States and Israel have launched over a thousand attacks so far, inflicting significant damage on Iran’s missile, naval, and drone capabilities.
The White House has claimed that Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities have been virtually destroyed and that full control of its airspace has been established.
However, experts say that Iran still retains the capability to resist and could engage in a prolonged “war of attrition.”
Prospect of Prolonged Conflict
According to analysts, the current trajectory of the war is pushing both sides towards further conflict. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, in particular, has further complicated the situation.
Nuclear Program Difficult to Fully Destroy
Experts believe that Iran’s nuclear program cannot be completely destroyed by air strikes alone. A ground operation may be required, which would pose significant risks.
US and Israeli Objectives May Differ
Analysis has also revealed that the objectives of the United States and Israel are not entirely aligned.
The U.S. primarily aims to weaken military capabilities.
Israel is interested in bringing about significant changes to Iran’s political system.
For this reason, it is anticipated that strategic differences between these two allies may become more apparent in the future.
Source: Al Jazeera.